Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth prediction

England · Premier League · 25 October 2026

Manchester United13th · 7 pts
Sun 25 Oct
AFC Bournemouth15th · 6 pts
Manchester UnitedDrawAFC Bournemouth
Our predictionManchester United to winLean
49%Probability
2.03Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.71-1.30Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Manchester United49%2.03
  • Draw24%4.09
  • AFC Bournemouth26%3.81

Double chance

  • Manchester United or draw74%1.36
  • Manchester United or AFC Bournemouth76%1.32
  • Draw or AFC Bournemouth51%1.97

Goals

  • Over 2.558%1.73
  • Under 2.542%2.37

Both teams to score

  • Yes59%1.69
  • No41%2.46

Match preview

Manchester United have the edge at 49%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for AFC Bournemouth at 26%.

Expected goals from the model: Manchester United 1.71, AFC Bournemouth 1.30. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 58%.

Manchester United have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DDDLD).

AFC Bournemouth have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WLLDD).

In the table Manchester United are 13th with 7 points and AFC Bournemouth 15th with 6.

In their last 5 league meetings Manchester United won 0, AFC Bournemouth won 1 and 4 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-09%
  • 2-07%
  • 1-27%

Manchester United form

DLDDD
  • Dat Leeds United1-12026-10-18
  • Dvs Tottenham Hotspur1-12026-10-10
  • Dat Fulham1-12026-09-20
  • Lvs Manchester City0-12026-09-13
  • Dat Everton2-22026-09-06

AFC Bournemouth form

DDLLW
  • Wvs Sunderland2-02026-10-18
  • Lat Chelsea1-52026-10-10
  • Lvs Liverpool0-12026-09-20
  • Dvs Brentford2-22026-09-12
  • Dat Newcastle United2-22026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-03-20AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United
  • 2025-12-15Manchester United 4-4 AFC Bournemouth
  • 2025-04-27AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United
  • 2024-12-22Manchester United 0-3 AFC Bournemouth
  • 2024-04-13AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.