West Ham United vs Southampton prediction

England · Championship · 24 October 2026

West Ham United2nd · 22 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Southampton4th · 21 pts
West Ham UnitedDrawSouthampton
Our predictionWest Ham United to winLean
56%Probability
1.79Fair odds
2-1Likely score
2.15-1.25Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • West Ham United56%1.79
  • Draw22%4.50
  • Southampton22%4.59

Double chance

  • West Ham United or draw78%1.28
  • West Ham United or Southampton78%1.29
  • Draw or Southampton44%2.27

Goals

  • Over 2.566%1.51
  • Under 2.534%2.95

Both teams to score

  • Yes63%1.59
  • No37%2.70

Match preview

West Ham United have the edge at 56%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 22% and a win for Southampton at 22%.

Expected goals from the model: West Ham United 2.15, Southampton 1.25. The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 66%.

West Ham United have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWDDW).

Southampton have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWWLW).

In the table West Ham United are 2nd with 22 points and Southampton 4th with 21.

In their last 5 league meetings West Ham United won 2, Southampton won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-110%
  • 1-19%
  • 2-08%
  • 1-07%
  • 3-17%

West Ham United form

WDDWW
  • Wat Swansea City1-02026-10-17
  • Wat Lincoln City6-02026-10-14
  • Dvs Queens Park Rangers1-12026-10-09
  • Dat Millwall2-22026-09-19
  • Wvs Wrexham6-02026-09-11

Southampton form

WLWWD
  • Dvs Bolton Wanderers0-02026-10-17
  • Wat Norwich City1-02026-10-14
  • Wvs Portsmouth1-02026-10-11
  • Lat Wrexham1-22026-09-19
  • Wvs Bristol City4-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2025-04-19West Ham United 1-1 Southampton
  • 2024-12-26Southampton 0-1 West Ham United
  • 2023-04-02West Ham United 1-0 Southampton
  • 2022-10-16Southampton 1-1 West Ham United
  • 2021-12-26West Ham United 2-3 Southampton

More Championship predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.