Vitória vs Athletico Paranaense prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 24 October 2026

Vitória13th · 15 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Athletico Paranaense6th · 23 pts
VitóriaDrawAthletico Paranaense
Our predictionAthletico Paranaense to winOpen game
40%Probability
2.48Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.26-1.40Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Vitória32%3.13
  • Draw28%3.61
  • Athletico Paranaense40%2.48

Double chance

  • Vitória or draw60%1.68
  • Vitória or Athletico Paranaense72%1.38
  • Draw or Athletico Paranaense68%1.47

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.02
  • Under 2.550%1.98

Both teams to score

  • Yes54%1.86
  • No46%2.16

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Vitória 32%, draw 28%, Athletico Paranaense 40%.

Expected goals from the model: Vitória 1.26, Athletico Paranaense 1.40. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Vitória have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DLWLD).

Athletico Paranaense have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LWDWD).

In the table Vitória are 13th with 15 points and Athletico Paranaense 6th with 23.

In their last 3 league meetings Vitória won 1, Athletico Paranaense won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-110%
  • 1-09%
  • 1-29%
  • 2-18%

Vitória form

DLWLD
  • Dat Corinthians1-12026-10-19
  • Lat São Paulo1-22026-10-11
  • Wvs Chapecoense4-02026-10-07
  • Lvs Cruzeiro1-32026-09-20
  • Dat Mirassol2-22026-09-13

Athletico Paranaense form

DWDWL
  • Lvs Palmeiras0-22026-10-17
  • Wat Chapecoense4-12026-10-12
  • Dvs Atlético Mineiro2-22026-10-08
  • Wvs Bahia2-12026-09-20
  • Dat Coritiba3-32026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Athletico Paranaense 3-1 Vitória
  • 2024-11-02Athletico Paranaense 1-2 Vitória
  • 2024-06-30Vitória 0-1 Athletico Paranaense

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.