Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 24 October 2026

Vasco da Gama12th · 15 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Corinthians18th · 9 pts
Vasco da GamaDrawCorinthians
Our predictionVasco da Gama to winLean
50%Probability
1.98Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.45-0.94Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Vasco da Gama50%1.98
  • Draw27%3.69
  • Corinthians22%4.46

Double chance

  • Vasco da Gama or draw78%1.29
  • Vasco da Gama or Corinthians73%1.37
  • Draw or Corinthians50%2.02

Goals

  • Over 2.543%2.35
  • Under 2.557%1.74

Both teams to score

  • Yes46%2.16
  • No54%1.86

Match preview

Vasco da Gama have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Corinthians at 22%.

Expected goals from the model: Vasco da Gama 1.45, Corinthians 0.94. The single most likely score is 1-0 (14%), and the chance of three or more goals is 43%.

Vasco da Gama have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWWW).

Corinthians have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (DLLLL).

In the table Vasco da Gama are 12th with 15 points and Corinthians 18th with 9.

In their last 5 league meetings Vasco da Gama won 1, Corinthians won 4 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-014%
  • 1-112%
  • 2-010%
  • 2-19%
  • 0-09%

Vasco da Gama form

WWWDL
  • Lat São Paulo0-12026-10-18
  • Dvs Remo0-02026-10-10
  • Wat Botafogo2-12026-10-07
  • Wvs Coritiba5-02026-09-19
  • Wat Grêmio2-12026-09-12

Corinthians form

LLLLD
  • Dvs Vitória1-12026-10-19
  • Lat Palmeiras1-42026-10-11
  • Lat Internacional1-22026-10-07
  • Lvs Fluminense1-32026-09-20
  • Lat Flamengo1-22026-09-13

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Corinthians 1-0 Vasco da Gama
  • 2025-08-24Vasco da Gama 2-3 Corinthians
  • 2025-04-05Corinthians 3-0 Vasco da Gama
  • 2024-11-24Corinthians 3-1 Vasco da Gama
  • 2024-07-10Vasco da Gama 2-0 Corinthians

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.