Chapecoense vs Fluminense prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 24 October 2026

Chapecoense19th · 9 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Fluminense8th · 20 pts
ChapecoenseDrawFluminense
Our predictionFluminense to winStrong pick
60%Probability
1.66Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.07-1.70Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Chapecoense18%5.45
  • Draw21%4.70
  • Fluminense60%1.66

Double chance

  • Chapecoense or draw40%2.52
  • Chapecoense or Fluminense79%1.27
  • Draw or Fluminense82%1.22

Goals

  • Over 2.552%1.91
  • Under 2.548%2.10

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.87
  • No47%2.15

Match preview

The model makes Fluminense clear favourites, with a 60% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 21% and a win for Chapecoense at 18%.

Expected goals from the model: Chapecoense 1.07, Fluminense 1.70. The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), and the chance of three or more goals is 52%.

Chapecoense have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLLDL).

Fluminense have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLWWL).

In the table Chapecoense are 19th with 9 points and Fluminense 8th with 20.

In their last 3 league meetings Chapecoense won 0, Fluminense won 3 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-111%
  • 0-111%
  • 1-210%
  • 0-29%
  • 1-07%

Chapecoense form

LDLLL
  • Lat Botafogo0-12026-10-17
  • Lvs Athletico Paranaense1-42026-10-12
  • Lat Vitória0-42026-10-07
  • Dat Atlético Mineiro1-12026-09-19
  • Lvs Internacional1-22026-09-12

Fluminense form

LWWLL
  • Lvs Santos1-22026-10-18
  • Lat Flamengo0-12026-10-11
  • Wvs Coritiba4-02026-10-09
  • Wat Corinthians3-12026-09-20
  • Lat Atlético Mineiro1-32026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense
  • 2021-12-10Fluminense 3-0 Chapecoense
  • 2021-09-08Chapecoense 1-2 Fluminense

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.