Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 29 October 2026

Vasco da Gama12th · 15 pts
Thu 29 Oct
Flamengo1st · 33 pts
Vasco da GamaDrawFlamengo
Our predictionFlamengo to winLean
51%Probability
1.94Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.13-1.44Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Vasco da Gama24%4.18
  • Draw25%4.05
  • Flamengo51%1.94

Double chance

  • Vasco da Gama or draw49%2.06
  • Vasco da Gama or Flamengo75%1.33
  • Draw or Flamengo76%1.31

Goals

  • Over 2.547%2.11
  • Under 2.553%1.90

Both teams to score

  • Yes51%1.95
  • No49%2.06

Match preview

Flamengo have the edge at 51%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Vasco da Gama at 24%.

Expected goals from the model: Vasco da Gama 1.13, Flamengo 1.44. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 47%.

Vasco da Gama have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LDWWW).

Flamengo have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWDWW).

In the table Vasco da Gama are 12th with 15 points and Flamengo 1st with 33.

In their last 5 league meetings Vasco da Gama won 0, Flamengo won 1 and 4 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-111%
  • 1-29%
  • 1-09%
  • 0-28%

Vasco da Gama form

WWWDL
  • Lat São Paulo0-12026-10-18
  • Dvs Remo0-02026-10-10
  • Wat Botafogo2-12026-10-07
  • Wvs Coritiba5-02026-09-19
  • Wat Grêmio2-12026-09-12

Flamengo form

WWDWW
  • Wat Bahia3-02026-10-18
  • Wvs Fluminense1-02026-10-11
  • Dat Santos2-22026-10-08
  • Wvs Red Bull Bragantino2-12026-09-20
  • Wvs Corinthians2-12026-09-13

Head to head

  • 2026-05-03Flamengo 2-2 Vasco da Gama
  • 2025-09-21Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama
  • 2025-04-19Vasco da Gama 0-0 Flamengo
  • 2024-09-15Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama
  • 2024-06-02Vasco da Gama 1-6 Flamengo

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.