Sunderland vs Leeds United prediction

England · Premier League · 25 October 2026

Sunderland20th · 4 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Leeds United7th · 10 pts
SunderlandDrawLeeds United
Our predictionSunderland to winOpen game
36%Probability
2.81Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.24-1.17Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Sunderland36%2.81
  • Draw29%3.43
  • Leeds United35%2.83

Double chance

  • Sunderland or draw65%1.55
  • Sunderland or Leeds United71%1.41
  • Draw or Leeds United64%1.55

Goals

  • Over 2.543%2.32
  • Under 2.557%1.76

Both teams to score

  • Yes49%2.06
  • No51%1.95

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Sunderland 36%, draw 29%, Leeds United 35%.

Expected goals from the model: Sunderland 1.24, Leeds United 1.17. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 43%.

Sunderland have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 league matches (LLLLD).

Leeds United have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DLDWD).

In the table Sunderland are 20th with 4 points and Leeds United 7th with 10.

In their last 5 league meetings Sunderland won 1, Leeds United won 1 and 3 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 1-011%
  • 0-111%
  • 0-09%
  • 2-18%

Sunderland form

DLLLL
  • Lat AFC Bournemouth0-22026-10-18
  • Lvs Brighton & Hove Albion0-22026-10-10
  • Lat Manchester City3-52026-09-20
  • Lvs Arsenal0-22026-09-12
  • Dat Brentford1-12026-09-05

Leeds United form

DWDLD
  • Dvs Manchester United1-12026-10-18
  • Lat Arsenal1-22026-10-10
  • Dvs Crystal Palace0-02026-09-20
  • Wvs Newcastle United4-12026-09-14
  • Dat Brighton & Hove Albion1-12026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-03-03Leeds United 0-1 Sunderland
  • 2025-12-28Sunderland 1-1 Leeds United
  • 2025-02-17Leeds United 2-1 Sunderland
  • 2024-10-04Sunderland 2-2 Leeds United
  • 2024-04-09Leeds United 0-0 Sunderland

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.