Stoke City vs Bristol City prediction

England · Championship · 24 October 2026

Stoke City7th · 19 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Bristol City16th · 14 pts
Stoke CityDrawBristol City
Our predictionStoke City to winOpen game
41%Probability
2.43Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.26-1.17Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Stoke City41%2.43
  • Draw28%3.54
  • Bristol City31%3.26

Double chance

  • Stoke City or draw69%1.44
  • Stoke City or Bristol City72%1.39
  • Draw or Bristol City59%1.70

Goals

  • Over 2.544%2.28
  • Under 2.556%1.78

Both teams to score

  • Yes49%2.03
  • No51%1.97

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Stoke City 41%, draw 28%, Bristol City 31%.

Expected goals from the model: Stoke City 1.26, Bristol City 1.17. The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 44%.

Stoke City have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLWWW).

Bristol City have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LLDWL).

In the table Stoke City are 7th with 19 points and Bristol City 16th with 14.

In their last 5 league meetings Stoke City won 2, Bristol City won 2 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-113%
  • 1-011%
  • 0-111%
  • 0-09%
  • 2-18%

Stoke City form

WWWLW
  • Wat Derby County1-02026-10-17
  • Lvs Middlesbrough2-32026-10-13
  • Wat Bolton Wanderers2-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Sheffield United2-12026-09-19
  • Wat Watford2-12026-09-12

Bristol City form

LWDLL
  • Lvs Sheffield United0-12026-10-17
  • Lvs Blackburn Rovers0-12026-10-13
  • Dat Charlton Athletic1-12026-10-10
  • Wvs Watford1-02026-09-18
  • Lvs Lincoln City0-12026-09-15

Head to head

  • 2026-05-02Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City
  • 2025-11-01Stoke City 5-1 Bristol City
  • 2025-02-12Bristol City 2-0 Stoke City
  • 2024-10-22Stoke City 2-2 Bristol City
  • 2024-05-04Stoke City 4-0 Bristol City

More Championship predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.