Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax prediction

Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 October 2026

Sparta Rotterdam13th · 9 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Ajax4th · 18 pts
Sparta RotterdamDrawAjax
Our predictionAjax to winLean
59%Probability
1.70Fair odds
1-2Likely score
1.23-2.05Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Sparta Rotterdam20%5.01
  • Draw21%4.74
  • Ajax59%1.70

Double chance

  • Sparta Rotterdam or draw41%2.43
  • Sparta Rotterdam or Ajax79%1.27
  • Draw or Ajax80%1.25

Goals

  • Over 2.564%1.57
  • Under 2.536%2.75

Both teams to score

  • Yes61%1.63
  • No39%2.59

Match preview

Ajax have the edge at 59%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 21% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam at 20%.

Expected goals from the model: Sparta Rotterdam 1.23, Ajax 2.05. The single most likely score is 1-2 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 64%.

Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WDLLD).

Ajax have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WDDWW).

In the table Sparta Rotterdam are 13th with 9 points and Ajax 4th with 18.

In their last 5 league meetings Sparta Rotterdam won 0, Ajax won 2 and 3 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-210%
  • 1-19%
  • 0-28%
  • 0-18%
  • 1-37%

Sparta Rotterdam form

DLLDW
  • Wvs Willem II3-22026-10-17
  • Dat Go Ahead Eagles3-32026-10-10
  • Lvs Heerenveen0-42026-09-19
  • Lat PSV1-42026-09-13
  • Dvs PEC Zwolle2-22026-09-04

Ajax form

WWDDW
  • Wat Groningen5-22026-10-18
  • Dvs NEC1-12026-10-10
  • Dvs Excelsior2-22026-09-19
  • Wvs Willem II5-12026-09-15
  • Wat Fortuna Sittard5-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-03-14Ajax 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam
  • 2025-10-04Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Ajax
  • 2025-04-27Ajax 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam
  • 2024-12-22Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 Ajax
  • 2024-03-17Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 Ajax

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.