NEC vs Groningen prediction

Netherlands · Eredivisie · 25 October 2026

NEC12th · 10 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Groningen7th · 14 pts
NECDrawGroningen
Our predictionNEC to winLean
46%Probability
2.17Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.78-1.49Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • NEC46%2.17
  • Draw24%4.16
  • Groningen30%3.35

Double chance

  • NEC or draw70%1.43
  • NEC or Groningen76%1.32
  • Draw or Groningen54%1.86

Goals

  • Over 2.564%1.57
  • Under 2.536%2.75

Both teams to score

  • Yes64%1.55
  • No36%2.80

Match preview

NEC have the edge at 46%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 24% and a win for Groningen at 30%.

Expected goals from the model: NEC 1.78, Groningen 1.49. The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), and the chance of three or more goals is 64%.

NEC have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DDDLD).

Groningen have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LWWDD).

In the table NEC are 12th with 10 points and Groningen 7th with 14.

In their last 5 league meetings NEC won 3, Groningen won 2 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-110%
  • 2-19%
  • 1-28%
  • 1-07%
  • 2-27%

NEC form

DLDDD
  • Dvs Fortuna Sittard2-22026-10-18
  • Dat Ajax1-12026-10-10
  • Dvs Go Ahead Eagles1-12026-09-20
  • Lat Cambuur0-32026-09-12
  • Dvs Excelsior2-22026-09-08

Groningen form

DDWWL
  • Lvs Ajax2-52026-10-18
  • Wat Excelsior5-12026-10-11
  • Wvs PEC Zwolle3-02026-09-18
  • Dat Go Ahead Eagles1-12026-09-12
  • Dvs Twente2-22026-09-06

Head to head

  • 2026-05-10Groningen 2-1 NEC
  • 2025-11-09NEC 2-0 Groningen
  • 2025-02-08Groningen 2-1 NEC
  • 2024-11-03NEC 6-0 Groningen
  • 2023-04-25Groningen 0-1 NEC

More Eredivisie predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.