Santos vs Bahia prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 25 October 2026

Santos5th · 24 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Bahia7th · 23 pts
SantosDrawBahia
Our predictionSantos to winLean
48%Probability
2.06Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.57-1.10Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Santos48%2.06
  • Draw27%3.77
  • Bahia25%3.99

Double chance

  • Santos or draw75%1.33
  • Santos or Bahia73%1.36
  • Draw or Bahia52%1.94

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.00
  • Under 2.550%2.00

Both teams to score

  • Yes53%1.90
  • No47%2.11

Match preview

Santos have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for Bahia at 25%.

Expected goals from the model: Santos 1.57, Bahia 1.10. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Santos have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WLDWW).

Bahia have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLLW).

In the table Santos are 5th with 24 points and Bahia 7th with 23.

In their last 5 league meetings Santos won 2, Bahia won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 1-011%
  • 2-19%
  • 2-09%
  • 0-18%

Santos form

WWDLW
  • Wat Fluminense2-12026-10-18
  • Lat Atlético Mineiro1-22026-10-11
  • Dvs Flamengo2-22026-10-08
  • Wat São Paulo2-12026-10-02
  • Wat Remo2-12026-09-19

Bahia form

WLLWL
  • Lvs Flamengo0-32026-10-18
  • Wvs Mirassol1-02026-10-11
  • Lat Palmeiras0-12026-10-09
  • Lat Athletico Paranaense1-22026-09-20
  • Wvs Remo2-12026-09-14

Head to head

  • 2026-04-25Bahia 2-2 Santos
  • 2025-08-24Bahia 2-0 Santos
  • 2025-04-07Santos 2-2 Bahia
  • 2023-09-19Bahia 1-2 Santos
  • 2023-05-10Santos 3-0 Bahia

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.