Grêmio vs Athletico Paranaense prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 30 October 2026

Grêmio17th · 10 pts
Fri 30 Oct
Athletico Paranaense6th · 23 pts
GrêmioDrawAthletico Paranaense
Our predictionAthletico Paranaense to winOpen game
42%Probability
2.38Fair odds
1-1Likely score
1.26-1.41Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Grêmio31%3.25
  • Draw27%3.67
  • Athletico Paranaense42%2.38

Double chance

  • Grêmio or draw58%1.72
  • Grêmio or Athletico Paranaense73%1.37
  • Draw or Athletico Paranaense69%1.44

Goals

  • Over 2.550%2.01
  • Under 2.550%1.99

Both teams to score

  • Yes54%1.86
  • No46%2.17

Match preview

An open game: no outcome reaches 45%. Grêmio 31%, draw 27%, Athletico Paranaense 42%.

Expected goals from the model: Grêmio 1.26, Athletico Paranaense 1.41. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 50%.

Grêmio have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LDDDL).

Athletico Paranaense have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (LWDWD).

In the table Grêmio are 17th with 10 points and Athletico Paranaense 6th with 23.

In their last 5 league meetings Grêmio won 3, Athletico Paranaense won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-112%
  • 0-110%
  • 1-09%
  • 1-29%
  • 2-18%

Grêmio form

LDDDL
  • Lvs Cruzeiro2-42026-10-18
  • Dvs Internacional1-12026-10-11
  • Dat Remo1-12026-10-07
  • Dvs Palmeiras0-02026-09-20
  • Lat Botafogo2-32026-09-16

Athletico Paranaense form

DWDWL
  • Lvs Palmeiras0-22026-10-17
  • Wat Chapecoense4-12026-10-12
  • Dvs Atlético Mineiro2-22026-10-08
  • Wvs Bahia2-12026-09-20
  • Dat Coritiba3-32026-09-12

Head to head

  • 2026-05-02Athletico Paranaense 0-0 Grêmio
  • 2024-08-04Athletico Paranaense 0-2 Grêmio
  • 2024-04-17Grêmio 2-0 Athletico Paranaense
  • 2023-10-18Grêmio 1-2 Athletico Paranaense
  • 2023-05-27Athletico Paranaense 1-2 Grêmio

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.