Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 26 October 2026

Flamengo1st · 33 pts
Mon 26 Oct
Atlético Mineiro3rd · 26 pts
FlamengoDrawAtlético Mineiro
Our predictionFlamengo to winStrong pick
66%Probability
1.51Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.83-0.81Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Flamengo66%1.51
  • Draw21%4.81
  • Atlético Mineiro13%7.63

Double chance

  • Flamengo or draw87%1.15
  • Flamengo or Atlético Mineiro79%1.26
  • Draw or Atlético Mineiro34%2.95

Goals

  • Over 2.549%2.03
  • Under 2.551%1.97

Both teams to score

  • Yes47%2.15
  • No53%1.87

Match preview

The model makes Flamengo clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 21% and a win for Atlético Mineiro at 13%.

Expected goals from the model: Flamengo 1.83, Atlético Mineiro 0.81. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 49%.

Flamengo have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWDWW).

Atlético Mineiro have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 league matches (WWDWD).

In the table Flamengo are 1st with 33 points and Atlético Mineiro 3rd with 26.

In their last 5 league meetings Flamengo won 3, Atlético Mineiro won 0 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 2-012%
  • 1-110%
  • 2-110%
  • 3-07%

Flamengo form

WWDWW
  • Wat Bahia3-02026-10-18
  • Wvs Fluminense1-02026-10-11
  • Dat Santos2-22026-10-08
  • Wvs Red Bull Bragantino2-12026-09-20
  • Wvs Corinthians2-12026-09-13

Atlético Mineiro form

DWDWW
  • Wvs Coritiba1-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Santos2-12026-10-11
  • Dat Athletico Paranaense2-22026-10-08
  • Wvs Red Bull Bragantino1-02026-10-03
  • Dvs Chapecoense1-12026-09-19

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Atlético Mineiro 0-4 Flamengo
  • 2025-11-26Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Flamengo
  • 2025-07-28Flamengo 1-0 Atlético Mineiro
  • 2024-11-13Flamengo 0-0 Atlético Mineiro
  • 2024-07-04Atlético Mineiro 2-4 Flamengo

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.