Burnley vs Portsmouth prediction

Match preview

Burnley have the edge at 46%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 28% and a win for Portsmouth at 27%.

At home this season Burnley average 0.67 points and 1.3 goals per game, conceding 1.7. Away from home Portsmouth take 1.33 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8. On shots on target, the measure the model leans on most, Burnley manage 3.4 per home game and Portsmouth 3.2 per away game.

Form lines: Burnley have scored in 12 straight league matches.

Burnley sit 22nd in the table, but their underlying numbers rank 8th in the league, so the model rates them higher than their position suggests.

Portsmouth are 13th in the table while the model ranks them only 18th on performance, so it expects them to drift back.

Expected goals from the model: Burnley 1.56, Portsmouth 1.06. The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), and the chance of three or more goals is 49%.

In their last 2 league meetings Burnley won 1 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

• 1-112%
• 1-012%
• 2-19%
• 2-09%
• 0-18%

Burnley form

• Lvs Wolverhampton Wanderers1-22026-10-16
• Dvs Charlton Athletic2-22026-10-13
• Wat Watford4-02026-10-10
• Dvs Derby County1-12026-09-19
• Lat Swansea City1-32026-09-12

Portsmouth form

• Dat Wolverhampton Wanderers1-12026-10-20
• Wat Norwich City1-02026-10-17
• Wvs Sheffield United3-22026-10-14
• Lat Southampton0-12026-10-11
• Dvs Blackburn Rovers2-22026-09-19