Bahia vs São Paulo prediction

Brazil · Brasileirão Série A · 29 October 2026

Bahia7th · 23 pts
Thu 29 Oct
São Paulo10th · 17 pts
BahiaDrawSão Paulo
Our predictionBahia to winLean
48%Probability
2.06Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.35-1.00Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Bahia48%2.06
  • Draw27%3.68
  • São Paulo24%4.11

Double chance

  • Bahia or draw76%1.32
  • Bahia or São Paulo73%1.37
  • Draw or São Paulo52%1.94

Goals

  • Over 2.542%2.41
  • Under 2.558%1.71

Both teams to score

  • Yes46%2.15
  • No54%1.87

Match preview

Bahia have the edge at 48%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 27% and a win for São Paulo at 24%.

Expected goals from the model: Bahia 1.35, São Paulo 1.00. The single most likely score is 1-0 (13%), and the chance of three or more goals is 42%.

Bahia have won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 league matches (LWLLW).

São Paulo have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WWLLW).

In the table Bahia are 7th with 23 points and São Paulo 10th with 17.

In their last 5 league meetings Bahia won 1, São Paulo won 3 and 1 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-013%
  • 1-113%
  • 0-110%
  • 0-09%
  • 2-09%

Bahia form

WLLWL
  • Lvs Flamengo0-32026-10-18
  • Wvs Mirassol1-02026-10-11
  • Lat Palmeiras0-12026-10-09
  • Lat Athletico Paranaense1-22026-09-20
  • Wvs Remo2-12026-09-14

São Paulo form

WLLWW
  • Wvs Vasco da Gama1-02026-10-18
  • Wvs Vitória2-12026-10-11
  • Lat Cruzeiro0-22026-10-08
  • Lvs Santos1-22026-10-02
  • Wvs Internacional1-02026-09-20

Head to head

  • 2026-05-03São Paulo 2-2 Bahia
  • 2025-10-26São Paulo 2-0 Bahia
  • 2025-05-31Bahia 2-1 São Paulo
  • 2024-11-06Bahia 0-3 São Paulo
  • 2024-06-30São Paulo 3-1 Bahia

More Brasileirão Série A predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.