Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons prediction

England · League One · 24 October 2026

Stevenage9th · 15 pts
Sat 24 Oct
Milton Keynes Dons20th · 9 pts
StevenageDrawMilton Keynes Dons
Our predictionStevenage to winLean
60%Probability
1.67Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.59-0.68Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Stevenage60%1.67
  • Draw25%3.93
  • Milton Keynes Dons15%6.84

Double chance

  • Stevenage or draw85%1.17
  • Stevenage or Milton Keynes Dons75%1.34
  • Draw or Milton Keynes Dons40%2.50

Goals

  • Over 2.540%2.53
  • Under 2.560%1.66

Both teams to score

  • Yes39%2.56
  • No61%1.64

Match preview

Stevenage have the edge at 60%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 25% and a win for Milton Keynes Dons at 15%.

Expected goals from the model: Stevenage 1.59, Milton Keynes Dons 0.68. The single most likely score is 1-0 (17%), and the chance of three or more goals is 40%.

Stevenage have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (WLWLW).

Milton Keynes Dons have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (LWLDD).

In the table Stevenage are 9th with 15 points and Milton Keynes Dons 20th with 9.

Most likely scores

  • 1-017%
  • 2-013%
  • 1-111%
  • 0-010%
  • 2-19%

Stevenage form

WLWLW
  • Wvs Plymouth Argyle3-02026-10-20
  • Lat Bradford City0-22026-10-17
  • Wvs Wigan Athletic1-02026-10-10
  • Lat Leyton Orient0-12026-09-19
  • Wvs Luton Town2-12026-09-10

Milton Keynes Dons form

DDLWL
  • Lat Blackpool0-22026-10-20
  • Wvs Luton Town2-12026-10-17
  • Lvs Reading1-52026-10-10
  • Dat AFC Wimbledon0-02026-09-17
  • Dvs Peterborough United1-12026-09-12

Head to head

  • No meetings in our data since 2020.

More League One predictions

All matches ›

Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.