Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe prediction

Turkey · Süper Lig · 26 October 2026

Galatasaray1st · 19 pts
Mon 26 Oct
Fenerbahçe3rd · 16 pts
GalatasarayDrawFenerbahçe
Our predictionGalatasaray to winLean
50%Probability
2.01Fair odds
2-1Likely score
1.98-1.47Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Galatasaray50%2.01
  • Draw23%4.36
  • Fenerbahçe27%3.68

Double chance

  • Galatasaray or draw73%1.37
  • Galatasaray or Fenerbahçe77%1.30
  • Draw or Fenerbahçe50%1.99

Goals

  • Over 2.567%1.49
  • Under 2.533%3.02

Both teams to score

  • Yes66%1.51
  • No34%2.95

Match preview

Galatasaray have the edge at 50%, but this is far from settled: the draw is at 23% and a win for Fenerbahçe at 27%.

Expected goals from the model: Galatasaray 1.98, Fenerbahçe 1.47. The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), and the chance of three or more goals is 67%.

Galatasaray have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWLWW).

Fenerbahçe have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (WWWDL).

In the table Galatasaray are 1st with 19 points and Fenerbahçe 3rd with 16.

In their last 5 league meetings Galatasaray won 2, Fenerbahçe won 1 and 2 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 2-19%
  • 1-19%
  • 1-27%
  • 2-27%
  • 1-06%

Galatasaray form

WWLWW
  • Wat Gençlerbirliği1-02026-10-17
  • Wvs Kasımpaşa3-12026-10-09
  • Lat Trabzonspor0-42026-09-19
  • Wvs Kocaelispor1-02026-09-13
  • Wat İstanbul Başakşehir3-22026-09-04

Fenerbahçe form

LDWWW
  • Wvs Alanyaspor3-02026-10-17
  • Wat Rizespor3-02026-10-10
  • Wvs Eyüpspor8-02026-09-20
  • Dat Gaziantep FK0-02026-09-14
  • Lvs Beşiktaş1-22026-09-05

Head to head

  • 2026-04-26Galatasaray 3-0 Fenerbahçe
  • 2025-12-01Fenerbahçe 1-1 Galatasaray
  • 2025-02-24Galatasaray 0-0 Fenerbahçe
  • 2024-09-21Fenerbahçe 1-3 Galatasaray
  • 2024-05-19Galatasaray 0-1 Fenerbahçe

More Süper Lig predictions

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.