Barau vs Kwara United prediction

Nigeria · Nigeria Premier Football League · 25 October 2026

Barau5th · 14 pts
Sun 25 Oct
Kwara United13th · 11 pts
BarauDrawKwara United
Our predictionBarau to winStrong pick
66%Probability
1.52Fair odds
1-0Likely score
1.51-0.44Expected goals

Betting markets

Model chances and the fair odds they imply

Match result

  • Barau66%1.52
  • Draw25%4.08
  • Kwara United9%10.55

Double chance

  • Barau or draw91%1.10
  • Barau or Kwara United75%1.32
  • Draw or Kwara United34%2.94

Goals

  • Over 2.531%3.23
  • Under 2.569%1.45

Both teams to score

  • Yes28%3.63
  • No72%1.38

Match preview

The model makes Barau clear favourites, with a 66% chance of winning. A draw is rated at 25% and a win for Kwara United at 9%.

Expected goals from the model: Barau 1.51, Kwara United 0.44. The single most likely score is 1-0 (22%), and the chance of three or more goals is 31%.

Barau have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 league matches (DDLDW).

Kwara United have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 league matches (DLWLW).

In the table Barau are 5th with 14 points and Kwara United 13th with 11.

In their last 2 league meetings Barau won 1, Kwara United won 1 and 0 ended level.

Most likely scores

  • 1-022%
  • 2-016%
  • 0-014%
  • 1-19%
  • 3-08%

Barau form

WDLDD
  • Dat Rivers United0-02026-10-19
  • Dvs Enugu Rangers2-22026-10-11
  • Lat Bendel Insurance1-42026-10-04
  • Dat Sporting Lagos1-12026-09-26
  • Wvs Abia Warriors2-02026-09-23

Kwara United form

WLWLD
  • Dvs Abia Warriors1-12026-10-17
  • Lat Ikorodu City0-22026-10-10
  • Wvs Ranchers Bees2-12026-10-04
  • Lat Kun Khalifat0-12026-09-27
  • Wvs Nasarawa United2-12026-09-23

Head to head

  • 2026-04-19Kwara United 2-1 Barau
  • 2025-11-30Barau 3-2 Kwara United

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Prediction last updated 2026-10-22 21:17 UTC. Fair odds are 1 divided by the model probability, not bookmaker prices. Published by Semalt; see how it works and the track record.